Although many have been preparing for the upcoming total solar eclipse for months, experts are now saying there’s a shift in totality path.
According to John Irwin, a new map shows the path of totality, which is roughly 115 miles wide, has experienced a slight shift. The path is narrower than previously predicted. Those who were previously along the edge of the totality may not get the view they planned to have.
Irwin’s solar eclipse map also shows the change.
Forbes points out 15 locations in the U.S. and Canada where the path of totality will be narrower. The media outlet noted it narrowed by around 2,000 feet/ 600 meters. Those in Rome, New York; Effingham, Illinois; and even Cité Jardin Park in Montreal are out of the totality zone.
“By accounting for the topography of both the moon and the Earth, precise eclipse prediction has brought new attention to a tiny but real uncertainty about the size of the Sun,” NASA Heliophysics Editorial Lead, Abbey Interrante, shared with Nextstar.
NASA Researcher Says the Change in Totality Path Impacts Cities on the Very Edge
Dr. Michael Kirk, a research scientist in NASA’s Heliophysics Science Division, also told the Thrillist last week the calculations used a slightly larger radius for the size of the sun yielding a slightly narrower eclipse path.
“This difference would only affect cities on the very edge of the path of totality,” Kirk explained. “Where blanket predictions are difficult, regardless.”
Kirk said a few city blocks one way or the other could mean 20,10, or zero seconds of totality. The totality zone could also be slightly impacted by “uncertainty” in the Earth’s rotation.
“Traveling towards the center of the path or totality – even a mile or two – will quickly increase the length of totality that people can see,” he added.
Meanwhile, major cities such as Cleveland, Buffalo, and Indianapolis will see nearly four minutes of complete darkness.
In the new path of the solar eclipse’s totality are San Antonio and Austin. Denton, Texas, and Lewisville Lake are now slightly out of the blackout zone.
Luca Quaglia, a collaborator of Irwin’s, also told Forbes the new projection is more precise. This is due to the measurements they used of the sun and moon. They are using new calculations instead of the sun calculations that have been used since the 1800s.
“Measurements and observations in the last decade have demonstrated that [traditional measurements of the sun] is slightly too small,” Quaglia said. “There is evidence that the solar radius has changed over the centuries.”