The odds of “city killer” asteroid 2024-YR4 playing a game of cosmic dodgeball with Earth in 2032 just keep bouncing around.
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In December 2024, astronomers discovered asteroid 2024 YR4, a large space object that could cause serious damage if it ever collided with Earth. According to UK outlet Metro, early estimates suggested a 3% chance of impact in 2032, sparking widespread concern about its potential trajectory and impact location.
Layer in the fact that a legendary “doomsday fish” washed ashore in Mexico recently, and folks are really on edge.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, once labeled a potential “city destroyer,” now presents a far less alarming scenario thanks to updated calculations (…allegedly). Here’s the latest update on the likelihood of a collision with Earth and the potential impact areas.
Originally, Several Countries were Thought to be in Harm’s Way From the 2032 Asteroid
When asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered, scientists calculated its potential impact trajectory, accounting for a 3% chance of collision. The projected risk corridor spanned vast regions, including the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
The countries believed to lie within the blast radius of the killer asteroid include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador.
NASA’s latest calculations have significantly lowered the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, reducing the likelihood to nearly zero.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer a threat to Earth, according to NASA pic.twitter.com/GgsKa3EqSg
— Gadget X Tech (@gadgetech94) February 27, 2025
However, there remains a 1.7% possibility that the asteroid could collide with the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032.
The Moon doesn’t have an atmosphere to protect it from space debris, so its surface is covered in craters that have formed over billions of years.
Over the years, the Moon has endured asteroid impacts and developed mare patches from volcanic activity on its far side. If asteroid 2024 YR4 were to collide with the Moon, it would create another crater. Of course, the consequences would be far less severe than if it struck Earth.
NASA and the International Asteroid Warning Network continuously monitor potentially hazardous asteroids, keeping a close eye on their trajectories. 2024 YR4 is currently under observation by the James Webb Space Telescope. It will provide updated insights into its size and path throughout March.